![]() The tendency to justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting the decision may be wrong. The tendency to rely too heavily, or “anchor,” on one trait or piece of information when making decisions, typically the first piece of information acquired on the relevant subject. The tendency to ignore generic base rate information and focus on specific information pertaining to a certain case or small sample. The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater ease of retrieval (availability) in memory. Also known as the I-knew-it-all-along effect. The tendency to see past events as being predictable at the time those events happened. The tendency to have excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. The tendency to underestimate costs, schedule, and risk and overestimate benefits and opportunities. The tendency to see one's project as more singular than it actually is. The tendency to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions, including overestimation of the frequency and size of positive events and underestimation of the frequency and size of negative ones. Aka political bias, strategic bias, or power bias. The tendency to deliberately and systematically distort or misstate information for strategic purposes. Finally, recent findings of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in conventional theory. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Third, base rate neglect is identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. ![]() Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project management are explained, with examples. Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment. Cognitive bias is half the story political bias the other half. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. All subjects Allied Health Cardiology & Cardiovascular Medicine Dentistry Emergency Medicine & Critical Care Endocrinology & Metabolism Environmental Science General Medicine Geriatrics Infectious Diseases Medico-legal Neurology Nursing Nutrition Obstetrics & Gynecology Oncology Orthopaedics & Sports Medicine Otolaryngology Palliative Medicine & Chronic Care Pediatrics Pharmacology & Toxicology Psychiatry & Psychology Public Health Pulmonary & Respiratory Medicine Radiology Research Methods & Evaluation Rheumatology Surgery Tropical Medicine Veterinary Medicine Cell Biology Clinical Biochemistry Environmental Science Life Sciences Neuroscience Pharmacology & Toxicology Biomedical Engineering Engineering & Computing Environmental Engineering Materials Science Anthropology & Archaeology Communication & Media Studies Criminology & Criminal Justice Cultural Studies Economics & Development Education Environmental Studies Ethnic Studies Family Studies Gender Studies Geography Gerontology & Aging Group Studies History Information Science Interpersonal Violence Language & Linguistics Law Management & Organization Studies Marketing & Hospitality Music Peace Studies & Conflict Resolution Philosophy Politics & International Relations Psychoanalysis Psychology & Counseling Public Administration Regional Studies Religion Research Methods & Evaluation Science & Society Studies Social Work & Social Policy Sociology Special Education Urban Studies & Planning BROWSE JOURNALSīehavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. ![]()
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